Essay on Main Economic Forecasts - 5895 Words

Main Economic Forecasts The main economic forecasts used to understand the general outlook of the economy included the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecast, the Administrations Forecast, the Blue Chip consensus forecasts and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecast. Not all forecasts contained the required indicators for the chosen indicators: employment growth, interest rates, housing starts, and business investment. For this reason, the analysis focused on a combination of the forecasts to understand the relationships among the indicators. Gleaning the economic forecasts led to a general understanding of the economy. Conducting further research on the economic forecasts led to a richer understanding of the selected†¦show more content†¦The administration believes unemployment will decrease from 5.5 in 2004, to 5.3 in 2005, to 5.2 for 2006 and 2007. Comparative Table for real GDP and Unemployment Forecaster Indicator 2004 2005 2006 2007 (2007-10) MBA Real GDP 4.4 3.8 3.3 3.5 Unemployment 5.5 5.2 5.1 5.1 CBO Real GDP 4.4 3.8 3.7 3.3 Unemployment 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 Blue Chip Real GDP 4.4 3.7 3.4 3.5 Unemployment 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.2 Administration Real GDP 4.4 3.7 3.7 3.5 Unemployment 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.2 Economic forecasts predict real GDP to decrease while unemployment decreases. This can give a conflicting view on what the economy might do in the future. While it would appear that real GDP and unemployment should move in opposite directions, this is not necessarily true. According to CBO unemployment is currently near the natural rate of unemployment, making a decrease in unemployment almost unprecievable in the economy at large. Further, while industries may be hiring people, they may not be producing more goods and services. In the past few years, due to the recession, many corporations laid off workers and reduced the salaries of those who stayed on. By keeping the salaries lowShow MoreRelatedEssay on Pfizer Macroeconomic Forecast1715 Words   |  7 PagesMacroeconomic Forecast Pfizer, Inc. March 14, 2005 Abstract This paper is a Macroeconomic Forecast Outline of Pfizer, Inc. This outline will identify main economic indicators for Pfizer as a business entity and as a representative of pharmaceutical industry. This paper will identify sources of various data collected based on economical activity and relationships between different economical indicators. 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